DF
Demand Forecast Review
🔵 Stable🕐 updated 2026-07-14
🔷 SkillSpec L3
pm-supplychain
Interrogate a demand forecast before the business commits supply and inventory to it. Use when asked to review a demand plan, challenge a forecast, check forecast accuracy, decompose baseline vs uplift, or find hockey sticks in the numbers. Produces a forecast credibility review with baseline/uplift decomposition, MAPE and bias history, hockey-stick flags, an assumption register, and consensus-vs-statistical divergence analysis.
What to give it
▸The forecast — by product/family and period, over the horizon under review
▸History — actuals for the trailing 12+ months; prior forecasts vs. actuals if available (for MAPE/bias)
▸Uplift drivers — promotions, launches, new customers, pipeline deals baked into the number
▸Who built it — statistical, sales-driven, consensus; and what changed since last cycle
▸Decision at stake — what the forecast will commit (buy, build, capacity) and its lead time
✅ The bar it holds itself to
Every skill in this library self-verifies — these are this skill's own quality checks, straight from its definition.
✓Baseline and uplift separated, with uplift % computed and every layer named
✓Accuracy metrics computed at the lag matching the commitment lead time — or absence declared
✓Bias reported as signed and directional, not folded into MAPE
✓Every hockey-stick flag cites the pattern evidence (order book, prior-cycle slippage)
✓Every speculative assumption has an owner and a confirm-by date
✓Verdict states what supply should actually plan to, not just critique
⚠️ What it refuses to do
Do not present a forecast without its historical accuracy — a number with no track record is a guess with a spreadsheet
Do not treat persistent bias as noise to buffer — a lean that repeats is an input error to fix at source
Do not let uplift hide inside the baseline — unnamed uplift is unaccountable uplift
Do not accept "the ramp moved right but the year is intact" without flagging it — sliding ramps rarely land
Do not judge accuracy at aggregate level for item-level buys — mix error is where the money is lost
Install
npx pm-claude-skills add --agent claude # or codex · cursor · gemini · hermes
# or one-line MCP (every skill, any client):
claude mcp add pm-skills -- npx -y pm-claude-skills-mcpRelated skills
🔌 Embed this skill
Drop this on your blog, docs, or site — it renders a "Run this skill" card:
<div data-pm-skill="demand-forecast-review"></div>
<script src="https://mohitagw15856.github.io/pm-claude-skills/embed.js" async></script>💬 Discussion
Demand Forecast Review is one of 599 open-source professional AI agent skills — all SkillSpec L3.
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